Global DRAM prices will drop 18% this month and bottom in Q1 2023.
The price of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) is said to be in the fall, and industry insiders predict that the cost of memory will drop significantly between the last quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of the following year. According to the opinions of industry experts, we are going to see a price change that falls anywhere between 13 and 18 percent.
It has been shown that DRAM will suffer a fall of up to 18% by the conclusion of the fourth quarter of 2022.
In an analysis conducted three months ago, Trendforce predicted that higher inflation would hurt the marketplace for customers, which would lead to a decrease in the price of DRAM on a worldwide scale.
The group did say that we should anticipate a decrease in the cost of between 13 and 18 percent initially and then an additional three to eight percent after that. Although it is not known if this is still the case, it is expected that consumer DRAM will continue to be in higher demand due to the widespread adoption of DDR5, which will serve as the standard.
Not only should we anticipate a drop in the price of memory, but we should also anticipate a rise in the quantity of memory sent.
Even though server DRAM has been in higher demand over the past year, the amount of server memory has decreased by almost eighteen percent. This is even though server DRAM has surpassed the amount of DRAM memory used for mobile technology, such as tablets, notebooks, and smartphones.
A more comprehensive range of customers has been adjusting their inventories due to variables relating to the macro economy and the restrictions of the supply chain. As a consequence of this, our projections for the year 2022 industry bit demand growth for DRAM and NAND have been lowered since our earnings call on June 30, 2022, and we anticipate a challenging market scenario in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2022 and the first quarter of the fiscal year 2023. Revenue for the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2022 may be at or below the low end of the revenue forecast range stated in our earnings call on June 30.
The sequential reduction in bit shipments is anticipated for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2023, and we expect significant sequential declines in revenue and profitability.
We are reducing our capital expenditures for wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) by an additional amount for the fiscal year 2023. This reduction is in addition to the WFE Capex reductions mentioned during our results call on June 30.
We now anticipate that overall Capex will be much lower in FY2023 compared to FY2022.— taken from the document that Micron submitted to the SEC.
There is a glimmer of optimism, but it is still some years away. The year 2026 is anticipated to be the year in which the growth rate of DRAM will hit twenty-four percent, and analysts estimate that the demand for server memory will hit that same percentage.